Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #254 / 1,000

P0157

Small bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 61,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 879

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 121

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 47Deviation -R 74

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 121. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 179

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 417 to R 428
Finished ahead: 163 / 1,000 (16,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #283 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 0,27% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.454
Mean bets / session: 2.054
Loss multiplier: 1.0104×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,2% / 50,3% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Lottery / JackpotR 1827 wagers · RTP 28,57%

BaccaratR 1064 wagers · RTP 49,06%

American RouletteR 532 wagers · RTP 147,17%

Craps / DiceR 532 wagers · RTP 98,11%

BlackjackR 522 wagers · RTP 225,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 261 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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