Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #682 / 1,000

P0214

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 60,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 5 763

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 237

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 432Deviation -R 2 806

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 237. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 5 269

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 203 to R 15 734
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #762 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.85
Mean bets / session: 5.391
Loss multiplier: 1.0439×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,8% / 61,9% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Craps / DiceR 11 90760 wagers · RTP 104,54%

BlackjackR 9 57448 wagers · RTP 100,63%

BaccaratR 8 20542 wagers · RTP 104,79%

American RouletteR 5 04526 wagers · RTP 113,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 13016 wagers · RTP 4,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 02714 wagers · RTP 78,59%

CrashR 2 88815 wagers · RTP 56,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 40613 wagers · RTP 145,63%

European RouletteR 2 18611 wagers · RTP 25,62%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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