Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #787 / 1,000

P0238

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 28,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 946

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 054

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 098Deviation -R 4 956

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 054. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 569

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 617 to R 18 866
Finished ahead: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #732 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.675
Mean bets / session: 3.367
Loss multiplier: 1.0767×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,2% / 55,5% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BlackjackR 6 82331 wagers · RTP 104,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 77328 wagers · RTP 103,75%

Craps / DiceR 4 99623 wagers · RTP 78,90%

American RouletteR 3 03614 wagers · RTP 50,99%

BaccaratR 2 91912 wagers · RTP 67,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 60512 wagers · RTP 55,74%

European RouletteR 1 7229 wagers · RTP 78,16%

CrashR 1 6588 wagers · RTP 15,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0696 wagers · RTP 106,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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