Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #781 / 1,000

P0239

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 8,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 4 068

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 932

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 110Deviation -R 4 822

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 932. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 340

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 200 to R 9 286
Finished ahead: 190 / 1,000 (19,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #660 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 1,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.256
Mean bets / session: 3.294
Loss multiplier: 1.0369×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,5% / 64,4% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Craps / DiceR 2 42619 wagers · RTP 54,82%

BlackjackR 2 36217 wagers · RTP 80,14%

CrashR 1 90316 wagers · RTP 84,21%

American RouletteR 1 74913 wagers · RTP 63,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 54513 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 47111 wagers · RTP 64,89%

BaccaratR 7646 wagers · RTP 110,73%

European RouletteR 6506 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6235 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3814 wagers · RTP 52,49%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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