Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #883 / 1,000

P0246

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 8,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 1 543

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 457

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 659Deviation -R 6 798

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 457. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 6 489

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 662 to R 16 229
Finished ahead: 134 / 1,000 (13,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #812 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.832
Mean bets / session: 3.142
Loss multiplier: 1.0681×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,6% / 55,4% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BlackjackR 4 05835 wagers · RTP 86,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 94928 wagers · RTP 39,07%

Craps / DiceR 3 66628 wagers · RTP 39,55%

American RouletteR 1 4179 wagers · RTP 39,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 37610 wagers · RTP 131,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 22513 wagers · RTP 32,65%

BaccaratR 1 0309 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 9747 wagers · RTP 10,01%

European RouletteR 1322 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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