Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #906 / 1,000

P0260

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 1,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 1 010

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 990

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 321Deviation -R 7 669

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 990. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 6 113

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 737 to R 14 050
Finished ahead: 168 / 1,000 (16,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #798 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,61% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.598
Mean bets / session: 5.838
Loss multiplier: 1.0101×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,0% / 45,5% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Craps / DiceR 6 21857 wagers · RTP 119,01%

BlackjackR 5 39848 wagers · RTP 100,09%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 53249 wagers · RTP 5,66%

BaccaratR 2 15520 wagers · RTP 49,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 03520 wagers · RTP 40,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 93711 wagers · RTP 37,07%

American RouletteR 1 68519 wagers · RTP 15,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 06013 wagers · RTP 25,99%

CrashR 8308 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 5808 wagers · RTP 50,86%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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