Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #863 / 1,000

P0281

Medium bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 4,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 2 053

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 947

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 782Deviation -R 7 165

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 947. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 632

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 940 to R 15 809
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #736 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.617
Mean bets / session: 5.582
Loss multiplier: 1.012×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,3% / 75,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BlackjackR 5 11545 wagers · RTP 88,74%

European RouletteR 4 86946 wagers · RTP 42,27%

Craps / DiceR 4 37042 wagers · RTP 84,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 80224 wagers · RTP 24,13%

BaccaratR 1 88018 wagers · RTP 87,59%

American RouletteR 1 34213 wagers · RTP 86,74%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 28310 wagers · RTP 68,83%

Three-Reel SlotR 91210 wagers · RTP 92,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 6488 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5926 wagers · RTP 64,19%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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