Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #185 / 1,000

P0325

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 76,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 10 266

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 266

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 223Deviation R 489

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 266. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 986

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 942 to R 6 014
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #424 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,90% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.545
Mean bets / session: 1.397
Loss multiplier: 1.0628×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,1% / 78,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6636 wagers · RTP 143,67%

BaccaratR 6032 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5832 wagers · RTP 99,49%

BlackjackR 5352 wagers · RTP 146,54%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2861 wagers · RTP 300,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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