Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #409 / 1,000

P0378

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 44,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 046

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 954

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 127Deviation -R 826

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 954. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 804

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 263 to R 1 938
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #399 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 1,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.569
Mean bets / session: 1.884
Loss multiplier: 1.0418×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,0% / 62,7% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 1 0986 wagers · RTP 127,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9255 wagers · RTP 101,43%

European RouletteR 9005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5093 wagers · RTP 51,28%

BlackjackR 1961 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1691 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1521 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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