Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #463 / 1,000

P0388

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 6,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 8 437

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 563

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 117Deviation -R 1 445

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 563. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 390

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 689 to R 1 823
Finished ahead: 310 / 1,000 (31,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #329 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.352
Mean bets / session: 1.305
Loss multiplier: 1.04×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,5% / 78,9% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 9144 wagers · RTP 104,40%

BaccaratR 8904 wagers · RTP 23,03%

European RouletteR 6963 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 4472 wagers · RTP 96,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2051 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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