Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #373 / 1,000

P0398

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 33,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 346

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 654

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 74Deviation -R 581

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 654. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 338

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 591 to R 1 811
Finished ahead: 331 / 1,000 (33,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #321 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.417
Mean bets / session: 1.005
Loss multiplier: 1.0719×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,1% / 58,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 8614 wagers · RTP 72,31%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4402 wagers · RTP 79,88%

American RouletteR 4382 wagers · RTP 102,74%

European RouletteR 2301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2191 wagers · RTP 50,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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