Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #75 / 1,000

P0400

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 99,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 15 371

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 371

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 109Deviation R 5 480

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 5 371. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 446

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 390 to R 1 217
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #341 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 1,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.33
Mean bets / session: 1.51
Loss multiplier: 1.0076×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,9% / 48,2% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 7064 wagers · RTP 146,46%

CrashR 5883 wagers · RTP 382,65%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4782 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3992 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3212 wagers · RTP 99,69%

American RouletteR 2852 wagers · RTP 1 629,47%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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