Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #510 / 1,000

P0409

Large bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 69,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 18 076

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 924

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 184Deviation R 259

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 924. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 9 776

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 102 to R 30 154
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 344 / 1,000 (34,4%)
Median rank: #934 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 17,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.324
Mean bets / session: 5.909
Loss multiplier: 1.0281×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,3% / 122,3% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

CrashR 22 35877 wagers · RTP 76,02%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 40343 wagers · RTP 46,86%

American RouletteR 8 29824 wagers · RTP 253,10%

Craps / DiceR 6 02517 wagers · RTP 108,88%

European RouletteR 4 33214 wagers · RTP 42,29%

BlackjackR 3 98110 wagers · RTP 117,38%

BaccaratR 3 24111 wagers · RTP 96,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 3018 wagers · RTP 49,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0526 wagers · RTP 2,85%

Lottery / JackpotR 90110 wagers · RTP 22,20%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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