Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #997 / 1,000

P0446

Large bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 11,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 2 193

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 17 807

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 447Deviation -R 16 360

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 17 807. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 9 976

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 594 to R 34 015
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 465 / 1,000 (46,5%)
Median rank: #964 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 13,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.731
Mean bets / session: 5.637
Loss multiplier: 1.0145×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,0% / 128,5% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

CrashR 11 10749 wagers · RTP 31,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 10168 wagers · RTP 44,99%

American RouletteR 4 79219 wagers · RTP 41,07%

BaccaratR 3 85916 wagers · RTP 118,60%

BlackjackR 2 86620 wagers · RTP 77,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 73126 wagers · RTP 78,23%

Craps / DiceR 2 62922 wagers · RTP 83,00%

European RouletteR 2 13111 wagers · RTP 48,24%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 01817 wagers · RTP 20,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 98712 wagers · RTP 43,12%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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