Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #826 / 1,000

P0494

Large bets, frequent. The visible outcome sits at the 65,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 120

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 880

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 573Deviation -R 4 307

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 880. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 9 856

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 11 476 to R 28 668
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 149 / 1,000 (14,9%)
Median rank: #941 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 14,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.226
Mean bets / session: 5.958
Loss multiplier: 1.1182×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,6% / 114,2% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 18 45228 wagers · RTP 90,71%

CrashR 16 50033 wagers · RTP 103,03%

American RouletteR 10 47516 wagers · RTP 50,33%

European RouletteR 9 88515 wagers · RTP 73,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 00032 wagers · RTP 34,38%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 00012 wagers · RTP 57,04%

Craps / DiceR 5 9319 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 3 2955 wagers · RTP 160,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 1 457,14%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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