Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #814 / 1,000

P0502

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 19,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 355

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 645

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 755Deviation -R 5 890

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 645. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 2 806

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 607 to R 13 003
Finished ahead: 307 / 1,000 (30,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #621 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 18,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.316
Mean bets / session: 2.247
Loss multiplier: 1.0221×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,6% / 81,6% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 6 6808 wagers · RTP 37,50%

BlackjackR 8351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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