Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #471 / 1,000

P0517

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 38,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 8 414

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 586

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 294Deviation -R 1 292

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 586. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 135

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 272 to R 3 561
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #446 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 17,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.366
Mean bets / session: 1.757
Loss multiplier: 1.1119×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 85,6% / 135,6% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 9764 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7323 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7323 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Craps / DiceR 4882 wagers · RTP 250,00%

European RouletteR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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