Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #262 / 1,000

P0536

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 72,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 850

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 150

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 469Deviation R 319

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 150. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 281

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 776 to R 21 518
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #663 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 16,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.418
Mean bets / session: 2.311
Loss multiplier: 1.0665×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,2% / 145,7% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 4 3905 wagers · RTP 80,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 7562 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 8781 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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