Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #519 / 1,000

P0556

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 28,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 8 033

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 967

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 291Deviation -R 1 676

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 967. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 247

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 257 to R 3 534
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #459 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 21,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.314
Mean bets / session: 1.75
Loss multiplier: 1.0411×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,9% / 120,6% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 1 1924 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8943 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2981 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 2981 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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