Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #294 / 1,000

P0580

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 67,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 706

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 294

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 435Deviation R 141

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 294. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 631

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 483 to R 8 985
Finished ahead: 295 / 1,000 (29,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #508 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 11,27% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.515
Mean bets / session: 1.143
Loss multiplier: 1.0217×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,4% / 116,8% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 2 1183 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 1183 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 7061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7061 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 7061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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