Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #275 / 1,000

P0584

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 66,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 9 800

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 200

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 255Deviation R 55

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 200. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 901

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 783 to R 12 124
Finished ahead: 318 / 1,000 (31,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #532 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 16,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.348
Mean bets / session: 1.436
Loss multiplier: 1.0993×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,6% / 93,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

European RouletteR 1 9722 wagers · RTP 150,00%

American RouletteR 1 9722 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 9861 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 9861 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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