Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #454 / 1,000

P0590

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 51,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 8 498

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 502

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 314Deviation -R 1 188

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 502. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 550

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 768 to R 5 181
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #494 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 17,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.55
Mean bets / session: 1.61
Loss multiplier: 1.0281×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,9% / 105,4% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 1 8006 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 6002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 6002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 3001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3001 wagers · RTP 307,76%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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