Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #487 / 1,000

P0593

Large bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 36,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 8 256

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 744

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 246Deviation -R 1 498

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 744. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 1 111

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 992 to R 4 781
Finished ahead: 292 / 1,000 (29,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #441 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 21,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.281
Mean bets / session: 1.427
Loss multiplier: 1.0902×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 86,6% / 128,8% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BlackjackR 2 3884 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 5971 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5971 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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