Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #734 / 1,000

P0639

Loss-chasing. The visible outcome sits at the 49,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 5 030

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 970

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 493Deviation -R 3 477

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 970. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 931

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 609 to R 14 902
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.859
Mean bets / session: 4.738
Loss multiplier: 1.2835×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 94,0% / 69,9% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

CrashR 11 68441 wagers · RTP 111,08%

American RouletteR 7 90525 wagers · RTP 28,80%

Craps / DiceR 6 45723 wagers · RTP 128,17%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3806 wagers · RTP 36,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3424 wagers · RTP 25,59%

European RouletteR 1 1963 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0594 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8654 wagers · RTP 109,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

BlackjackR 4792 wagers · RTP 94,78%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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