Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #985 / 1,000

P0650

Loss-chasing. The visible outcome sits at the 1,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 10 000

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 000

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 161Deviation -R 8 839

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 000. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 5 225

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 981 to R 15 645
Finished ahead: 280 / 1,000 (28,0%)
At least one ruin: 17 / 1,000 (1,7%)
Median rank: #757 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 4,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.277
Mean bets / session: 5.617
Loss multiplier: 1.427×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,0% / 89,6% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

CrashR 5 69538 wagers · RTP 65,33%

American RouletteR 5 01336 wagers · RTP 64,03%

Craps / DiceR 4 96733 wagers · RTP 59,19%

BaccaratR 3 52317 wagers · RTP 71,26%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 30912 wagers · RTP 86,44%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 58127 wagers · RTP 50,98%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5039 wagers · RTP 58,25%

European RouletteR 1 4969 wagers · RTP 34,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 27411 wagers · RTP 101,65%

BlackjackR 5085 wagers · RTP 0,79%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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