Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #5 / 1,000

P0695

Loss-chasing. The visible outcome sits at the 98,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 55 910

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 45 910

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 6 934Deviation R 52 845

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 45 910. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 9 744

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 952 to R 26 947
Finished ahead: 196 / 1,000 (19,6%)
At least one ruin: 110 / 1,000 (11,0%)
Median rank: #930 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 3,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.029
Mean bets / session: 5.662
Loss multiplier: 1.498×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,4% / 71,6% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Craps / DiceR 19 94324 wagers · RTP 96,22%

American RouletteR 17 77021 wagers · RTP 172,54%

European RouletteR 12 26414 wagers · RTP 357,14%

CrashR 8 71818 wagers · RTP 146,69%

BaccaratR 6 9958 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 8478 wagers · RTP 163,36%

BlackjackR 2 6283 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 75,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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