Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #24 / 1,000

P0812

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 91,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 30 388

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 20 388

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 348Deviation R 22 737

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 20 388. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 6 754

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 365 to R 28 007
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #820 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 4,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.796
Mean bets / session: 4.848
Loss multiplier: 1.019×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,3% / 98,9% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 14 72918 wagers · RTP 29,19%

BaccaratR 7 7409 wagers · RTP 111,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 50013 wagers · RTP 127,33%

CrashR 5 66412 wagers · RTP 64,00%

European RouletteR 5 1606 wagers · RTP 183,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 75019 wagers · RTP 726,32%

Craps / DiceR 4 3005 wagers · RTP 120,00%

BlackjackR 4 2905 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies