Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #827 / 1,000

P0814

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 25,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 099

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 901

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 198Deviation -R 5 703

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 901. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 474

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 996 to R 16 042
Finished ahead: 285 / 1,000 (28,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 7,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.005
Mean bets / session: 2.044
Loss multiplier: 1.0947×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 51,5% / 42,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 5 46911 wagers · RTP 71,42%

European RouletteR 5 46110 wagers · RTP 36,09%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 4689 wagers · RTP 83,67%

Craps / DiceR 1 9894 wagers · RTP 64,10%

BlackjackR 1 5653 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1 4403 wagers · RTP 177,50%

CrashR 1 2803 wagers · RTP 156,25%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 183,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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