Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #560 / 1,000

P0816

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 68,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 7 610

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 390

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 736Deviation -R 1 654

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 390. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 430

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 614 to R 27 836
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #722 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 7,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.781
Mean bets / session: 2.72
Loss multiplier: 0.9653×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,6% / 43,8% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 37312 wagers · RTP 84,66%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 70515 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 8855 wagers · RTP 140,00%

CrashR 1 5725 wagers · RTP 295,02%

American RouletteR 1 4034 wagers · RTP 100,07%

Craps / DiceR 7542 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 7542 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3771 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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