Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #794 / 1,000

P0824

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 37,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 842

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 158

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 423Deviation -R 4 734

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 158. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 5 271

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 496 to R 20 269
Finished ahead: 219 / 1,000 (21,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #759 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.148
Mean bets / session: 3.843
Loss multiplier: 1.0617×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,7% / 98,7% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 94530 wagers · RTP 110,48%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 88530 wagers · RTP 10,31%

BaccaratR 3 58818 wagers · RTP 91,58%

Craps / DiceR 1 9527 wagers · RTP 78,13%

BlackjackR 1 1917 wagers · RTP 66,75%

European RouletteR 1 0366 wagers · RTP 39,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 9406 wagers · RTP 197,61%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 85,71%

American RouletteR 5092 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3702 wagers · RTP 26,69%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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