Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #11 / 1,000

P0830

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 98,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 42 504

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 32 504

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 245Deviation R 33 749

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 32 504. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 5 460

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 123 to R 25 828
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #768 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 6,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.807
Mean bets / session: 3.859
Loss multiplier: 0.9895×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,3% / 62,8% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 18515 wagers · RTP 122,77%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 00020 wagers · RTP 690,00%

CrashR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 325,00%

BaccaratR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 117,00%

American RouletteR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BlackjackR 2 3955 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 81,25%

European RouletteR 1 9164 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4373 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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