Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #769 / 1,000

P0845

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 44,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 4 330

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 670

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 105Deviation -R 4 565

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 670. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 912

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 214 to R 26 213
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 4,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.73
Mean bets / session: 4.259
Loss multiplier: 1.2414×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,4% / 93,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 39719 wagers · RTP 58,96%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 07918 wagers · RTP 73,55%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 70816 wagers · RTP 71,01%

CrashR 3 0097 wagers · RTP 221,34%

Craps / DiceR 2 4368 wagers · RTP 9,36%

American RouletteR 1 7975 wagers · RTP 33,72%

BaccaratR 1 7653 wagers · RTP 57,45%

European RouletteR 1 5745 wagers · RTP 102,73%

BlackjackR 1 0693 wagers · RTP 106,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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