Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #950 / 1,000

P0854

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 4,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 89

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 911

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 835Deviation -R 9 077

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 911. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 7 483

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 909 to R 28 483
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #845 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 8,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.132
Mean bets / session: 3.352
Loss multiplier: 1.0446×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,8% / 47,1% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

BaccaratR 8 42921 wagers · RTP 41,12%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 79020 wagers · RTP 186,14%

American RouletteR 3 0169 wagers · RTP 28,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 94919 wagers · RTP 9,83%

BlackjackR 2 2075 wagers · RTP 84,19%

European RouletteR 1 4355 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9107 wagers · RTP 21,04%

CrashR 6454 wagers · RTP 17,44%

Craps / DiceR 3993 wagers · RTP 19,05%

Lottery / JackpotR 351 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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