Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #822 / 1,000

P0868

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 1,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 3 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 800

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 578Deviation -R 6 222

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 800. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 651

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 210 to R 22 308
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #683 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 2,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 2.811
Loss multiplier: 1.0381×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,9% / 81,4% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 09821 wagers · RTP 52,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 23814 wagers · RTP 32,88%

Craps / DiceR 1 0507 wagers · RTP 57,90%

American RouletteR 8607 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7866 wagers · RTP 14,89%

BaccaratR 6614 wagers · RTP 75,04%

Lottery / JackpotR 6238 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5624 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4735 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4394 wagers · RTP 94,65%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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