Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #25 / 1,000

P0882

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 94,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 30 275

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 20 275

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 237Deviation R 21 512

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 20 275. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 4 091

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 782 to R 22 565
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #708 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 6,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.626
Mean bets / session: 2.335
Loss multiplier: 1.0248×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,2% / 47,5% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 8 5429 wagers · RTP 388,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 00014 wagers · RTP 80,45%

CrashR 2 5005 wagers · RTP 65,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 87,50%

European RouletteR 1 9922 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 9922 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 9961 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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