Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #755 / 1,000

P0900

Variable / random staking. The visible outcome sits at the 4,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 4 584

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 416

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 680Deviation -R 4 736

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 416. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 228

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 384 to R 7 866
Finished ahead: 184 / 1,000 (18,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #655 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 1,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.083
Mean bets / session: 4.679
Loss multiplier: 0.9062×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,5% / 88,9% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 32932 wagers · RTP 43,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 55225 wagers · RTP 24,36%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 07117 wagers · RTP 42,02%

American RouletteR 96313 wagers · RTP 40,39%

European RouletteR 71810 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 54510 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3785 wagers · RTP 145,50%

BlackjackR 3787 wagers · RTP 43,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 3615 wagers · RTP 82,96%

Craps / DiceR 3545 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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