Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #879 / 1,000

P0953

Random control. The visible outcome sits at the 3,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 1 666

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 334

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 677Deviation -R 7 657

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 334. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 3 032

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 072 to R 12 956
Finished ahead: 284 / 1,000 (28,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #638 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 7,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.757
Mean bets / session: 2.53
Loss multiplier: 1.0396×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,7% / 51,2% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

European RouletteR 3 2689 wagers · RTP 67,63%

CrashR 2 9758 wagers · RTP 27,44%

BaccaratR 2 1354 wagers · RTP 26,32%

American RouletteR 1 9874 wagers · RTP 156,87%

Craps / DiceR 1 8134 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 2253 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0995 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0663 wagers · RTP 91,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0355 wagers · RTP 75,99%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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