Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #725 / 1,000

P0987

Random control. The visible outcome sits at the 2,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMETail outcomeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 5 226

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 774

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 438Deviation -R 4 336

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 774. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 2 177

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 462 to R 7 834
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #563 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 3,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.034
Mean bets / session: 1.46
Loss multiplier: 0.8601×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,1% / 80,7% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

American RouletteR 1 6297 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 0365 wagers · RTP 49,23%

Craps / DiceR 9633 wagers · RTP 80,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8944 wagers · RTP 29,71%

BaccaratR 8273 wagers · RTP 139,54%

European RouletteR 8224 wagers · RTP 78,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 7073 wagers · RTP 17,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4685 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4073 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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