Extreme Fiscal Pressure

C01

Every modelled path closes the first-year accounting gap of about R1.23 trillion. In the guardrailed case that ends in 2052, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path and the present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.

GSX:POP-012:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Common 2050 shockThe shock combines a severe pandemic, war and security mobilisation, and a recession. The immediate financing need is 14 percent of shocked-year GDP, about R1.23 trillion in constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A02Three governance pathsThe best case is a guardrailed constitutional emergency ending in 2052. The average case is an extended executive emergency to 2058. The worst case is a permanent constitutional suspension that has not ended by 2080.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Guardrailed emergency, 2050-2080In the guardrailed case, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path. The present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Extreme Fiscal Pressure · GSX:POP-012:PDF