The Politics of an Ageing Electorate

C01

In the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults but 20.7 percent of votes cast. Applying the 2024 age-turnout pattern produces a median voter aged 43, four years older than the median adult.

GSX:POP-004:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · moderate sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A012025 starting populationThe simulation starts with South Africa in 2025: 63.1 million people, of whom 6.6 million are aged 60 or older. Ageing is moved forward one year at a time to 2100.moderate sensitivity

A022024 age-turnout patternVotes are estimated by applying the Electoral Commission's 2024 age-turnout pattern. Those rates come from identification scans for 9.17 million of 16.29 million voters who voted, then extrapolated.high sensitivity

A03Age-60 boundaryOlder adult means a person aged 60 or older, the current old-age grant age and the series benchmark. It does not mean every such person has retired or shares one preference.low sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R012025 calibration with the 2024 age-turnout patternIn the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults and 20.7 percent of votes cast. The median voter is 43, four years older than the median adult.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Politics of an Ageing Electorate · GSX:POP-004:PDF