R02

Machine-readable statement

Under baseline ageing, the age-60-plus bloc overtakes voters aged 18 to 34 around 2039 and supplies 46.0 percent of votes by 2100 with fixed turnout. The median voter is 57, still below retirement age. Accelerated ageing produces a median voter of 60 in 2085, or 2081 with turnout feedback.

Scenario: Baseline and accelerated scenarios to 2100. Evidence: modelled.