The Politics of an Ageing Electorate

C02

Under the baseline path, voters aged 60 or older overtake voters aged 18 to 34 around 2039 and cast 46.0 percent of votes by 2100 if age-specific turnout stays fixed. The median voter remains below retirement age. Only the accelerated-ageing scenario produces a retired median voter within the century, in 2085 with fixed turnout and in 2081 with feedback.

GSX:POP-004:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A012025 starting populationThe simulation starts with South Africa in 2025: 63.1 million people, of whom 6.6 million are aged 60 or older. Ageing is moved forward one year at a time to 2100.moderate sensitivity

A022024 age-turnout patternVotes are estimated by applying the Electoral Commission's 2024 age-turnout pattern. Those rates come from identification scans for 9.17 million of 16.29 million voters who voted, then extrapolated.high sensitivity

A03Age-60 boundaryOlder adult means a person aged 60 or older, the current old-age grant age and the series benchmark. It does not mean every such person has retired or shares one preference.low sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Baseline and accelerated scenarios to 2100Under baseline ageing, the age-60-plus bloc overtakes voters aged 18 to 34 around 2039 and supplies 46.0 percent of votes by 2100 with fixed turnout. The median voter is 57, still below retirement age. Accelerated ageing produces a median voter of 60 in 2085, or 2081 with turnout feedback.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Politics of an Ageing Electorate · GSX:POP-004:PDF