The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund

C01

Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.

GSX:IND-006:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Deposit ruleAll royalties first enter the National Revenue Fund. Only a fraction of royalties, windfall mining tax and public-industrial dividends is transferred to the savings fund. Mineral and petroleum royalties were R10.6 billion in 2024/25.moderate sensitivity

A02Central withdrawal ruleWithdrawals wait 15 years and then equal 3 percent of the trailing five-year fund value.high sensitivity

A03Separate institutionsThe industrial holding company and the savings fund are different balance sheets. The fund is diversified away from South African minerals, the rand and the domestic business cycle.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Central caseIn the central case the fund reaches about R258 billion in 2042, R586 billion in 2060, R893 billion in 2080 and R1.48 trillion in 2125, in constant 2026 rand.modelled

R02Central withdrawal pathThe central annual budget transfer rises from about R6 billion when withdrawals begin to R16 billion in 2060 and R43 billion in 2125.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund · GSX:IND-006:PDF