Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:IND-006:A01, GSX:IND-006:A02, GSX:IND-006:A03. A fund does not create a fiscal surplus. If the deposit is matched by new borrowing at a higher cost, the country has a leveraged portfolio rather than national savings. The transfer is a marginal public income, not a self-financing welfare state.
C01
Related questions
How can a sovereign wealth fund hold mineral rents for the public?
What happens to public wealth when mineral revenue is saved rather than spent once?
3
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Deposit ruleAll royalties first enter the National Revenue Fund. Only a fraction of royalties, windfall mining tax and public-industrial dividends is transferred to the savings fund. Mineral and petroleum royalties were R10.6 billion in 2024/25.10.6 billion rand of royalties in 2024/25
A02Central withdrawal ruleWithdrawals wait 15 years and then equal 3 percent of the trailing five-year fund value.3 percent of the trailing five-year fund value
A03Separate institutionsThe industrial holding company and the savings fund are different balance sheets. The fund is diversified away from South African minerals, the rand and the domestic business cycle.qualitative not a scalar
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Mineral savings-fund pathsRoyalties, windfall mining tax and dividends are deposited by rule into a separate fund. The central case waits 15 years and then withdraws 3 percent of the trailing five-year fund value.GSX:IND-006:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01586 billion constant 2026 rand in 2060In the central case the fund reaches about R258 billion in 2042, R586 billion in 2060, R893 billion in 2080 and R1.48 trillion in 2125, in constant 2026 rand.Central case
R0216 billion constant 2026 rand in 2060The central annual budget transfer rises from about R6 billion when withdrawals begin to R16 billion in 2060 and R43 billion in 2125.Central withdrawal path
Sensitivity
High · 2
Moderate · 0
Low · 0
Limitations
A fund does not create a fiscal surplus. If the deposit is matched by new borrowing at a higher cost, the country has a leveraged portfolio rather than national savings. The transfer is a marginal public income, not a self-financing welfare state.
The permanent character of the fund is the withdrawal rule, not the label. The rule has to survive a future government that wants the money.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:IND-006:C01Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:IND-006:C02The adverse case withdraws earlier, draws a larger share and earns only 1.5 percent real. The manuscript says that path ends the century with almost nothing.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 3 932 words across 30 indexed headings. Source checksum: 86a3515b068c…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
