The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex

C02

Forced localisation realises about 52 percent of the value pool after utilisation and market-access penalties, below focused integration on the manuscript's realised-value comparison.

GSX:IND-001:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Illustrative value poolEach stage is assigned an illustrative share of total value added. The shares are a way to expose where value is assumed to remain local. They are not a forecast of GDP or company revenue.high sensitivity

A02Strategy casesThe comparison includes the existing footprint, focused integration, a frontier partnership case, and forced autarky after utilisation and market-access penalties.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Realised value after penaltiesForced autarky realises about 52 percent of the value pool after utilisation and market-access penalties, compared with about 62 percent for focused integration and 73 percent for the frontier partnership case on that realised-value comparison.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex · GSX:IND-001:PDF

C02

Nominal local content can rise while actual local value falls if plants fail qualification, lack offtake or operate intermittently.