A01Illustrative value poolEach stage is assigned an illustrative share of total value added. The shares are a way to expose where value is assumed to remain local. They are not a forecast of GDP or company revenue.
04 · Strategic Industrialisation
The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex
An integrated strategy for converting mineral endowment into industrial depth.
PDF · 25 pages · 2.00 MB · 04.01 · GSX:IND-001
Study record · GSX:IND-001
How could South African mineral endowment be converted into industrial depth?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:IND-001:C01
On the manuscript's illustrative value pool, focused integration retains 66.3 percent, compared with 37.6 percent for the existing footprint and 81.4 percent for a frontier partnership case.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:IND-001:A01, GSX:IND-001:A02. These are not forecasts of GDP or company revenue. Geology is not industrial power: the manuscript distinguishes reserve shares from mined-production shares.
C01
Related questions
- What industrial system connects critical minerals to domestic production?
- How does the critical-minerals complex differ from exporting unprocessed ore?
2
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Strategy casesThe comparison includes the existing footprint, focused integration, a frontier partnership case, and forced autarky after utilisation and market-access penalties.qualitative not a scalar
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Value-pool localisation modelThe model assigns illustrative shares of a critical-minerals value pool to chain stages and compares an existing footprint, focused integration, frontier partnership and forced autarky.GSX:IND-001:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R0166.3 percent of the modelled value pool, focused integrationThe existing footprint retains about 37.6 percent of the modelled pool. Focused integration reaches 66.3 percent. A frontier case with successful technology partnerships reaches 81.4 percent.Value-pool scenarios
R0252 percent of the value pool realised under forced autarkyForced autarky realises about 52 percent of the value pool after utilisation and market-access penalties, compared with about 62 percent for focused integration and 73 percent for the frontier partnership case on that realised-value comparison.Realised value after penalties
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
These are not forecasts of GDP or company revenue. Geology is not industrial power: the manuscript distinguishes reserve shares from mined-production shares.
Nominal local content can rise while actual local value falls if plants fail qualification, lack offtake or operate intermittently.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:IND-001:C01On the manuscript's illustrative value pool, focused integration retains 66.3 percent, compared with 37.6 percent for the existing footprint and 81.4 percent for a frontier partnership case.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:IND-001:C02Forced localisation realises about 52 percent of the value pool after utilisation and market-access penalties, below focused integration on the manuscript's realised-value comparison.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 604 words across 39 indexed headings. Source checksum: 66e4c6f96ac0…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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