For matched descendants, the central scenario produces median marketable net worth after forty years of R3.67 million with a titled township home and R5.24 million with a middle-value suburban home. The difference is R1.57 million, in constant 2024 rand.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:WPL-001:A01. These are scenarios, not forecasts and not estimates for a racial group. The comparison shows that inherited property conditions can be large enough to matter. It does not show what share of the national wealth gap that mechanism causes.
C01
Related questions
How does inherited property geography relate to South Africa's racial wealth gap?
How do the type, location, and tenure of inherited property carry advantage across generations?
3
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Matched descendantsThe modelled descendants share education, real salary, household size and saving behaviour. The property condition changes.qualitative not a scalar
A02No identified causal shareNo national source follows an inherited property from parent to heir while jointly observing population group, title, location, competing claims, marketability and later wealth.qualitative not a scalar
A03Observed wealth benchmarksIn 2017 NIDS data cited by the manuscript, median Black household net worth was about R70,100 and median White household net worth was R1,364,900.70100 rand, 2017 median Black household net worth
1
Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Matched-descendant property scenariosDescendants with the same education, real salary, household size and saving behaviour receive different inherited property conditions. The central case is a Monte Carlo scenario in constant 2024 rand over forty years.GSX:WPL-001:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R015.24 million constant 2024 rand, middle-value suburban medianIn the central Monte Carlo case, median marketable net worth after forty years is R3.04 million with no inherited property, R3.15 million with a communal family residence, R3.67 million with a titled township home, R5.24 million with a middle-value suburban home, R10.59 million with high-value property and R6.51 million with a productive farm, in constant 2024 rand.Central Monte Carlo case, forty years
R021.57 million constant 2024 randThe modelled gap between the titled-township and middle-suburb medians is R1.57 million. The gap between the communal-residence and high-property cases is R7.44 million.Central case differences after forty years
Sensitivity
High · 2
Moderate · 0
Low · 0
Limitations
These are scenarios, not forecasts and not estimates for a racial group. The comparison shows that inherited property conditions can be large enough to matter. It does not show what share of the national wealth gap that mechanism causes.
There is no core causal estimate. Observed gaps, probate records and the matched model answer different questions and are not averaged into one percentage.
2
Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:WPL-001:C01For matched descendants, the central scenario produces median marketable net worth after forty years of R3.67 million with a titled township home and R5.24 million with a middle-value suburban home. The difference is R1.57 million, in constant 2024 rand.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:WPL-001:C02The manuscript states that the causal share of the racial wealth gap attributable to inherited property geography cannot be identified from currently available data.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 8 399 words across 61 indexed headings. Source checksum: 6d46a34c6a35…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. not recorded A public code repository is not published.
