In the central regional-hub scenario, an 8 percent capture share produces about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue and about US$71.2 billion of value retained in South Africa.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:AFR-002:A01. The captured flow is not South African GDP. The paths are constructed, not forecasts. Financial intermediation does not replace weak electricity, logistics, education or public institutions.
C01
Related questions
What would make Johannesburg Africa's financial capital?
How do continental growth and local institutions shape Johannesburg's financial role?
2
Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A01Central hub sharesForty percent of gross capital formation is treated as institutionally or externally financeable. Johannesburg arranges, distributes, services or manages 8 percent of that pool.8 percent of the financeable pool
A02Starting financial depthThe manuscript cites JSE market capitalisation of R24.18 trillion at the end of 2025 and banking-sector assets of R8.45 trillion in June 2025.24.18 trillion rand of JSE market capitalisation at end-2025
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Regional-hub financial-services modelThe model takes a constructed path for African gross capital formation, treats part of it as financeable, applies a Johannesburg capture share, and converts captured flow into fees and retained value.GSX:AFR-002:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R0190.4 billion US dollars of cumulative revenueUnder the central hub scenario, captured flow is approximately US$1.30 trillion. Fees and spreads produce about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue.Central regional hub, 2026-2050
R0271.2 billion US dollars retainedAbout US$71.2 billion is retained as domestic value, US$2.85 billion a year on average, with roughly 15,800 direct jobs and 25,300 direct and indirect jobs.Central hub after foreign inputs and offshore delivery
Sensitivity
High · 1
Moderate · 1
Low · 0
Limitations
The captured flow is not South African GDP. The paths are constructed, not forecasts. Financial intermediation does not replace weak electricity, logistics, education or public institutions.
A large transaction routed through Johannesburg can leave little domestic income if the structuring, insurance, domicile and investors sit abroad.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:AFR-002:C01In the central regional-hub scenario, an 8 percent capture share produces about US$90.4 billion of cumulative financial-services revenue and about US$71.2 billion of value retained in South Africa.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:AFR-002:C02The manuscript's objective is retained financial value from African investment even when the project, issuer, investor or consumer is elsewhere. Inherited market depth does not by itself protect that role.Modelled · moderate sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 7 550 words across 89 indexed headings. Source checksum: c8f5d0d9664b…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
