A01Conditional growth ratesThe central scenario assumes the rest of Africa sustains 4.2 percent annual real growth from 2024 to 2050 while South Africa grows at 3.5 percent.
South Africa in a Richer Africa
The macroeconomic consequences of broad African income convergence.
PDF · 26 pages · 1.48 MB · 05.01 · GSX:AFR-001
Study record · GSX:AFR-001
What are the macroeconomic consequences for South Africa of broad African income convergence?
Evidence status: Modelled. Exploratory simulation. Version 1.0. Peer review: none. The paragraph under the title is the published summary.
Conditional answer · GSX:AFR-001:C01
If the rest of Africa grows at 4.2 percent and South Africa at 3.5 percent, the manuscript's central scenario has South African GDP at about US$981 billion, real GDP per person up roughly 109 percent, and the continental GDP share down from 13.8 to 11.9 percent.
Evidence status: Modelled. Sensitivity: high. Depends on GSX:AFR-001:A01, GSX:AFR-001:A02. This is a conditional scenario, not a forecast that African convergence will happen. A falling rank is not a fall in South African income.
C01
Related questions
- How does a richer African continent change the South African economy?
- What happens to South African growth if African incomes converge upward?
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Assumptions
Assumptions
These are the registered model assumptions. A result stays conditional on the ones a claim names.
A02Starting sharesIn 2024 South Africa contained about 4.2 percent of Africa's population and produced roughly 13.8 percent of the continent's measured GDP in current US dollars.13.8 percent of African GDP in 2024
A03Platform-income shareThe platform strategy sets income retained by South African workers, firms and investors from the rest of Africa at 1.5 percent of that larger continental economy. It is not added mechanically to GDP.1.5 percent of the rest of Africa's economy
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Model
Model
The registered model statement. It is a scenario model, and the manuscript remains the full specification.
M01Continental growth and platform-income scenarioThe model holds a conditional African growth path and a South African growth path, then separates GDP rank from a platform-income flow.GSX:AFR-001:M01
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Results
Results
Modelled scenario results. They are not forecasts.
R01981 billion US dollars of South African GDPSouth African GDP more than doubles in real terms to about US$981 billion, real GDP per person rises by roughly 109 percent, and the share of African GDP falls from 13.8 to 11.9 percent.Central scenario, 2050
R02109 billion US dollars in 2050At a 1.5 percent retained share, the annual platform flow is about US$109 billion in 2050. In the platform scenario the manuscript also reports real economic growth of roughly 145 percent while the continental GDP share falls by two percentage points.African-platform income flow
Sensitivity
- High · 2
- Moderate · 0
- Low · 0
Limitations
This is a conditional scenario, not a forecast that African convergence will happen. A falling rank is not a fall in South African income.
Gross exports, brass-plate headquarters and outward investment can fail to retain income. The strategy is judged by retained value.
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Claims
Claims
Each claim names the assumptions it uses and the limitation that travels with it.
C01GSX:AFR-001:C01If the rest of Africa grows at 4.2 percent and South Africa at 3.5 percent, the manuscript's central scenario has South African GDP at about US$981 billion, real GDP per person up roughly 109 percent, and the continental GDP share down from 13.8 to 11.9 percent.Modelled · high sensitivity
C02GSX:AFR-001:C02If South African-linked income from the rest of Africa reaches 1.5 percent of that larger economy, the annual flow is about US$109 billion in 2050. The manuscript does not add that flow on top of GDP.Modelled · high sensitivity
Sources and reproducibility
The PDF and complete Markdown source are both published.
Full manuscript: 5 050 words across 29 indexed headings. Source checksum: 1b1bb84af334…. Code recorded: yes. Data recorded: yes. Environment recorded: no. Published files: 3. the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed A public code repository is not published.
Community record · version 1.0
Published community record: 0 critiques, 0 forks, and 0 revisions.
Pakang Senosha is the author on this version. External review: none. A later critique or revision appears here after a person publishes it.
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