The First Three Years Advantage

C01

In the central middle-salary Johannesburg scenario, living in the family home and delaying a car purchase for three years creates R602,000 more modelled net capital at age 25, and R3.32 million more modelled wealth at age 60, than moving out and financing a car immediately. The age-60 figure holds when the gap is preserved on the manuscript's common post-25 path.

GSX:HH-002:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Representative workerThe central case is a 22-year-old worker in Johannesburg, expressed in constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A02Middle starting salaryThe central worker earns R420,000 a year before tax. The manuscript also reports a lower case of R240,000 and a higher case of R720,000. These are illustrative starting salaries, not national percentiles.high sensitivity

A03Johannesburg housing bundleIndependent housing in the Johannesburg scenario costs R9,600 a month in rent and R7,200 a month in other housing basics. The manuscript treats these as transparent city scenarios, not estimated city means.high sensitivity

A04Contribution while living at homeWhile living in the family home, the worker contributes 12% of take-home pay, bounded between R2,500 and R6,000 a month, plus R1,200 of personal food and services. The manuscript counts this transfer as a private cost.high sensitivity

A05Financed used carThe car is a R230,000 used vehicle with a 10% deposit and 60-month finance at 11.5%, plus insurance, parking, fuel, maintenance, and depreciation as specified in the manuscript.moderate sensitivity

A06Hybrid transport while the car is delayedDelaying the car uses a public-transport and ride-hailing mix. In the central case the worker travels about 640 kilometres a month.high sensitivity

A07Common path after age 25At age 25 every strategy has moved out and acquired the modelled car. From then on the paths share the same real salary growth, a 10% retirement saving rate, and a 5% real investment return.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Middle salary, Johannesburg, immediate independenceMoving out and buying the car immediately leaves a modelled funding shortfall of R49,000 at age 25 in the central case.modelled

R02Middle salary, Johannesburg, three-year delayDelaying the move and the car for three years leaves R553,000 of modelled net capital at age 25 in the central case.modelled

R03Middle salary, Johannesburg, three-year delay minus immediate independenceThe central three-year combined delay creates R602,000 more modelled net capital at age 25 than immediate independence.modelled

R04Middle salary, Johannesburg, gap carried to age 60 at a 5% real returnIf that age-25 gap is preserved on the common post-25 path, the manuscript reports R3.32 million more modelled wealth at age 60.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The First Three Years Advantage · GSX:HH-002:PDF